Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 0.016737 0.018981 0.021421 0.024273 0.027515 0.031089 0.035331
2025-04-27 0.013354 0.016466 0.020148 0.024830 0.030636 0.037611 0.046645
2025-05-04 0.011611 0.015152 0.019589 0.025566 0.033430 0.043451 0.057240
2025-05-11 0.010032 0.013708 0.018534 0.025349 0.034760 0.047349 0.065551
2025-05-18 0.008910 0.012671 0.017809 0.025368 0.036256 0.051448 0.074390
2025-05-25 0.007894 0.011630 0.016920 0.024992 0.037064 0.054554 0.082014
2025-06-01 0.007265 0.011056 0.016604 0.025358 0.038911 0.059244 0.092337
2025-06-08 0.006595 0.010338 0.015985 0.025173 0.039859 0.062611 0.100894
2025-06-15 0.006231 0.010047 0.015969 0.025891 0.042239 0.068350 0.113702
2025-06-22 0.005571 0.009216 0.015024 0.025017 0.041947 0.069757 0.119490
2025-06-29 0.005104 0.008654 0.014451 0.024686 0.042493 0.072538 0.127795
2025-07-06 0.004597 0.007976 0.013624 0.023837 0.042057 0.073587 0.133128
2025-07-13 0.004418 0.007851 0.013732 0.024637 0.044606 0.080095 0.148995
2025-07-20 0.004218 0.007672 0.013730 0.025241 0.046865 0.086299 0.164960
2025-07-27 0.004057 0.007546 0.013807 0.025987 0.049438 0.093285 0.183074
2025-08-03 0.003774 0.007168 0.013390 0.025767 0.050152 0.096832 0.194811
2025-08-10 0.003550 0.006881 0.013116 0.025786 0.051320 0.101332 0.208867
2025-08-17 0.003296 0.006514 0.012658 0.025404 0.051647 0.104188 0.219802
2025-08-24 0.003153 0.006353 0.012584 0.025776 0.053528 0.110319 0.238204
2025-08-31 0.002959 0.006073 0.012251 0.025587 0.054224 0.114059 0.251806
2025-09-07 0.002877 0.006014 0.012355 0.026318 0.056923 0.122235 0.275982
2025-09-14 0.002640 0.005613 0.011726 0.025429 0.056038 0.122626 0.282612
2025-09-21 0.002475 0.005351 0.011367 0.025093 0.056333 0.125614 0.295492